Flirting with Models

The Research Library of Newfound Research

Category: Trend (Page 4 of 7)

G̷̖̱̓́̀litch

The convexity of trend may be more crisis beta than crisis alpha, where the nature of the crisis is defined by the speed of the trend following system.

Trend: Convexity & Premium

We decompose trend into returns from an option payoff and trading impact, demonstrating that the historical convexity and premium have different sources.

Tightening the Uncertain Payout of Trend-Following

Long/flat trend-following strategies look like call options with uncertainty. Combining multiple trend models can reduce this uncertainty in the payout.

Fragility Case Study: Dual Momentum GEM

We demonstrate how simple differences in dual momentum implementations can lead to annual performance differences up to thousands of basis points.

A Carry-Trend-Hedge Approach to Duration Timing

In this research note we discuss three simple signals – term spread, momentum, and prior equity returns – for timing exposure to 10-year U.S. Treasuries.