Flirting with Models

Research Library of Newfound Research | While other asset managers focus on alpha, our first focus is on managing risk.

Author: Corey Hoffstein (Page 1 of 57)


The convexity of trend may be more crisis beta than crisis alpha, where the nature of the crisis is defined by the speed of the trend following system.

Trend: Convexity & Premium

We decompose trend into returns from an option payoff and trading impact, demonstrating that the historical convexity and premium have different sources.

No Pain, No Premium

We explore the risk-based framework that gives risk to our philosophy of "no pain, no premium" and its implications for diversification.

Drawdowns and Portfolio Longevity

We find that a long or prolonged drawdowns early in an investor’s retirement can dramatically increase the probability of failure.

Fragility Case Study: Dual Momentum GEM

We demonstrate how simple differences in dual momentum implementations can lead to annual performance differences up to thousands of basis points.

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