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The convexity of trend may be more crisis beta than crisis alpha, where the nature of the crisis is defined by the speed of the trend following system.
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Trend: Convexity & Premium
We decompose trend into returns from an option payoff and trading impact, demonstrating that the historical convexity and premium have different sources.
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No Pain, No Premium
We explore the risk-based framework that gives risk to our philosophy of "no pain, no premium" and its implications for diversification.
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Tightening the Uncertain Payout of Trend-Following
Long/flat trend-following strategies look like call options with uncertainty. Combining multiple trend models can reduce this uncertainty in the payout.
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Drawdowns and Portfolio Longevity
We find that a long or prolonged drawdowns early in an investor’s retirement can dramatically increase the probability of failure.
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Fragility Case Study: Dual Momentum GEM
We demonstrate how simple differences in dual momentum implementations can lead to annual performance differences up to thousands of basis points.
Read more.Video Digest: Process & Manager Diversification
A video digest of our most recent weekly research commentaries on the potential benefits of diversifying across managers or process within a portfolio.
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Is Multi-Manager Diversification Worth It?
In this commentary we explore whether manager diversification can have risk reduction benefits like those found with asset diversification.
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2018 Highlights – The Top 20 Posts You Might Have Missed
Best-of highlights of the most popular Flirting with Models blog posts of 2018!
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Dart-Throwing Monkeys and Process Diversification
A brief note that explores the impact of process diversification on terminal wealth dispersion, a key metric in portfolio planning.
Read more.What do portfolios and teacups have in common?
Volatility is one way to manage risk. How sensitive a portfolio is to small changes in inputs – a measure of its fragility – is another important measure.
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The Risk in the Risk-Free Rate
The risk-free rate is a tool in portfolio construction, but the practical aspects of achieving that rate can be difficult in a low rate environment.
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Maximizing Diversification
Maximum diversification is possible in portfolio construction, but its benefits are often ephemeral and out of line with investor objectives.
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Directionally Right and Precisely Wrong
Portfolio construction decisions tell us about more than just our objective: they tell us about our beliefs. But what if we're not 100% certain?
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The Yield is Gravity
Yield remains the dominant force of returns over time for many fixed-income portfolios; price volatility and default risk are necessary to earn a premium.
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Measuring the Benefit of Diversification
A systematic approach for evaluating diversification leads to actionable, unbiased results based on a portfolio's objectives.
Read more.Video Digest: When Simplicity Met Fragility
A video digest of our most recent weekly research commentary on the balancing act between robustness and fragility created by simplicity.
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When Simplicity Met Fragility
Simplicity can be surprisingly robust, but too much simplicity can be surprisingly fragile. We explore the limits of simplicity in trend equity strategies.
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Attack of the Clone: Lessons from Replicating Long/Short Equity
We attempt to replicate the Credit Suisse Long/Short Liquid Index and thereby identify the commonn sources of performance in long/short equity strategies.
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A Carry-Trend-Hedge Approach to Duration Timing
In this research note we discuss three simple signals – term spread, momentum, and prior equity returns – for timing exposure to 10-year U.S. Treasuries.
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