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The Frustrating Law of Active Management
We introduce the Frustrating Law of Active Management: For a strategy to outperform in the long run, it has to underperform in the short run.
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Addressing Low Return Forecasts in Retirement with Tactical Allocation
Low return forecasts make risk management crucial. Tactical strategies have been effective in the past, and moderate allocations can make a big difference.
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The Lie of Averages
We believe that maintaining a degree of flexibility within a portfolio can help investors adapt to the path they are on.
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Tax-Managed Models & Asset Location
We explore how tax-adjusted expected returns can be created and used in effort to create tax-managed portfolios that can maximize post-tax returns.
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The Butterfly Effect in Retirement Planning
Examining the significant impact of changes in assumptions, including spending and return assumptions, on retirement planning analysis.
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Portfolios in Wonderland & The Weird Portfolio
Investors looking for long-term success may have to expand their investment palette and invest in weird portfolios to earn enticing returns in the future.
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A Philosophy-First Asset Manager
Newfound embraces a philosophy-first asset management mentality, avoiding blind product and process loyalty for an evidence-based approach.
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Accounting for Autocorrelation in Assessing Drawdown Risk
Volatility can predict drawdowns, but incorporating autocorrelation yields more accurate predictions in equities, low vol, income, and managed futures.
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Impact of High Equity Valuations on Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rates
High valuations suggest that retirement withdrawal rates that were once safe may now deliver success rates that are no better than a coin flip
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A Gentle Guide to Global Tactical Asset Allocation
An introduction to global tactical asset allocation ("GTAA") using systematic styles like value, momentum, carry, defensive and trend.
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Building an Unconstrained Sleeve
A presentation exploring how can unconstrained sleeve can be built to target hedging, equity-like, or absolute-return characteristics.
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Managing Capital Market Assumption Risk
A robust portfolio is better than an optimal one. Mitigating the risk of incorrect capital market assumptions is important in mean variance optimization.
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Combining Tactical Views with Black-Litterman and Entropy Pooling
For practitioners looking to implement tactical views in a coherent manner, Black-Litterman and Entropy Pooling may be attractive approaches.
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Four Important Details in Tactical Asset Allocation
We outline four important considerations that we believe can have an outsized impact on tactical asset allocation performance if ignored.
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Growth Optimal Portfolios
Most portfolio construction focuses on the trade-off of risk and return, but growth optimal portfolios may be better suited for wealth maximization.
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Duration Timing with Style Premia
Can value, momentum, carry, and an explicit measure of the bond risk premium be used as methods for timing duration in a fixed income portfolio?
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Is Your Multi-Asset Strategy Really Multi-Asset?
Most multi-asset strategies are very concentrated in a few risk factors. Seeking broad diversification requires diving deeper than the name of the strategy.
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Factors & Financial Planning
Factors are often discussed as a means to potential enhance portfolio return; but how should factors be combined when portfolio goals are considered?
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Do Factors Market Time?
Traditional academic equity factors exhibit time-varying beta exposure. Does this varying exposure imply returns from "market timing"?
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Big Little Details
In investing we typically focus on the big details, but the little details can have an outsized impact on results when they have the chance to compound.
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