Drawdowns and Portfolio Longevity
We find that a long or prolonged drawdowns early in an investor’s retirement can dramatically increase the probability of failure.
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The New Glide Path
Investors have traditionally utilized a stock/bond glide path in order to control for sequence risk. Where does trend following fit in?
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Dollar-Cost Averaging: Improved by Trend?
The choice to lump sum invest (“LSI”) or dollar-cost average (“DCA”) is one fraught with emotion. Intuition tells us that LSI likely offers the best bet for long-term investors as markets, in general, tend to go up. However, can signals derived from simple trend models offer an edge?
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Failing Slow, Failing Fast, and Failing Very Fast
Failure to meet your financial objectives can take one of two forms: fast failure and slow failure. Failing fast involves suffering large losses at the wrong time as the result of taking too much risk. Failing slow involves achieving insufficient growth due to taking too little risk.
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You Are Not a Monte-Carlo Simulation
Our lives are not a monte-carlo simulation. Because we all live in a multi-period world where we have a single investment portfolio that compounds over time, managing risk can help us maximize our long-term growth rate even if it seems foolish in hindsight.
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Should You Dollar-Cost Average?
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is often touted as superior to lump sum investing, but there are many scenarios where DCA may be inferior. The market environment and investor behavior both play large roles in the decision of which route to take.
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No Silver Bullets: 8 Ideas for Financial Planning in a Low-Return Environment
We offer 8 ideas investors can implement to help address the short-coming of traditional financial planning rules in a low-return environment.
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Tactical, But When?
We believe that investors should most actively seek to manage risk when they are most susceptible to sequence risk, i.e. the years around retirement.
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Addressing Low Return Forecasts in Retirement with Tactical Allocation
Low return forecasts make risk management crucial. Tactical strategies have been effective in the past, and moderate allocations can make a big difference.
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The Lie of Averages
We believe that maintaining a degree of flexibility within a portfolio can help investors adapt to the path they are on.
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The Butterfly Effect in Retirement Planning
Examining the significant impact of changes in assumptions, including spending and return assumptions, on retirement planning analysis.
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Impact of High Equity Valuations on Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rates
High valuations suggest that retirement withdrawal rates that were once safe may now deliver success rates that are no better than a coin flip
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Factors & Financial Planning
Factors are often discussed as a means to potential enhance portfolio return; but how should factors be combined when portfolio goals are considered?
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Visualizing the Anxiety of Active Strategies
We visualize the anxiety caused by relative performance of several popular factor tilts in comparison to standard market benchmarks.
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The asymmetry zone
This blog post is available as a PDF here. Summary  The math
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You do not experience summary statistics
Investment portfolios are often evaluated and selected based on summary statistics; but these summary statistics fail to capture investor experience.
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Will You Be Able to Retire Without Tactical Asset Allocation?
A blog post exploring how realistic the assumptions for planning to retire are and addressing their shortfalls with tactical asset allocation.
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Checking your portfolio more frequently ensures you see more losses
A PDF version of this commentary can be downloaded here. Special
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