Fragility Case Study: Dual Momentum GEM
We demonstrate how simple differences in dual momentum implementations can lead to annual performance differences up to thousands of basis points.
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Attack of the Clone: Lessons from Replicating Long/Short Equity
We attempt to replicate the Credit Suisse Long/Short Liquid Index and thereby identify the commonn sources of performance in long/short equity strategies.
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A Carry-Trend-Hedge Approach to Duration Timing
In this research note we discuss three simple signals – term spread, momentum, and prior equity returns – for timing exposure to 10-year U.S. Treasuries.
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Decomposing Trend Equity
We decompose trend equity into a strategic allocation and an active trading strategy in effort to create better transparency around portfolio behavior.
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A Trend Equity Primer
An introduction to trend equity, a strategy that seeks to benefit from the long-term, expected equity risk premium and the convex payoff of trend following.
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Timing Equity Returns Using Monetary Policy
We explore the relationship between equity returns and contractionary/expansionary monetary policy regimes using a simple simulation-based framework.
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A Factor-Based Approach to Disruptor-Based Sectors
Sector disruptors are new products that can be hard to allocate to. The proven history of factors (momentum, etc.) can be a guide.
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Mean Reversion and Bond ETF Returns
The fixed coupon and maturity of bonds act live gravity, causing mean reversion in returns. Short-term underperformance might suggest a positive forecast.
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Momentum’s Magic Number
The performance of momentum strategies appears to peak when the formation period plus the holding period sum to between 12 and 18 months.
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The Raw Materials for Active Management
Explaining why active management performs a certain way in an environment is tough. Predicting this difference is even harder. Diversification is key.
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Inferring the Statistics of Buffett’s Alpha
What investors should take away from Buffett’s alpha is that discipline was crucial for realizing the long-term outperformance.
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Factor Fimbulwinter
We explore the evidence that would be required for us to dismiss established anomalies. We find that we would likely have to live through several careers.
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A Season for Sectors
Seasonality has proven to be a significant anomaly in a variety of markets. We test whether seasonality applies with sector-based investing and find that not only has the premium been economically significant, but is un-explained by traditional anomalies.
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Dollar-Cost Averaging: Improved by Trend?
The choice to lump sum invest (β€œLSI”) or dollar-cost average (β€œDCA”) is one fraught with emotion. Intuition tells us that LSI likely offers the best bet for long-term investors as markets, in general, tend to go up. However, can signals derived from simple trend models offer an edge?
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Separating Ingredients and Recipe in Factor Investing
Factor portfolio construction has two key elements: ingredients (the signals used to pick investments) and recipe (the rules used to translate those signals into allocations). While the ingredients often get the most focus, the recipe can have just as large of an impact on returns.
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How to Benchmark Trend-Following
Benchmarking a trend-following strategy is difficult. The tendency is to compare it to an equity strategy, but this often leads to disappointment. We explore a better benchmark that allows investors to accurately measure performance and set expectations.
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Leverage and Trend Following
We typically explore trend following as a risk management technique for investors sensitive to sequence risk, but it may also be a way to allow growth investors to benefit from leverage by reducing the risk of permanent portfolio impairment that would otherwise occur due to large drawdowns.
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The Importance of Diversification in Trend Following
Single-asset trend following strategies can play a meaningful role in investor portfolios, but success requires introducing sources of diversification within the strategy. We believe the increased internal diversification allows not only for a higher probability of success.
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Risk Ignition with Trend Following
Trend following strategies may represent a beneficial diversifier for conservative portfolios going forward, potentially allowing investors to more fully participate with equity market growth without necessarily fully exposing themselves to equity market risk.
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Diversifying the What, How, and When of Trend Following
NaΓ―ve and simple long/flat trend following approaches have demonstrated considerable consistency and success in U.S. equities. We explore how investors can think about introducing greater diversification across the three axes of what, how, and when in effort to build a more robust tactical solution.
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