Harvesting the Bond Risk Premium
The term premium for bonds is difficult to caputre without de-risking a portfolio. Using levered ETPs can help maintain equity exposure while adding bonds.
Read more.
Ensemble Multi-Asset Momentum
We use a multi-asset momentum framework to explore the potential benefits of ensemble construction in diversifying process and rebalance risk.
Read more.
Dynamic Spending in Retirement Monte Carlo
Accounting for potential dynamic spending in retirement in the planning process can paint a better picture of retirement success and failure.
Read more.
The Path-Dependent Nature of Perfect Withdrawal Rates
The perfect withdrawal rate in a retirement portfolio contains more risk than meets the eye. The order of returns is extremely important.
Read more.
Trend Following in Cash Balance Plans
Cash balance plans can accelerate retirement savings beyond 401ks and IRAs. But how they are invested depends heavily on the return guarantee and employees.
Read more.
The Monsters of Investing: Fast and Slow Failure
Investors must navigate between the risks of failing fast and slow. Knowing which is most likely to prey on you can inform portfolio design.
Read more.
G̷̖̱̓́̀litch
The convexity of trend may be more crisis beta than crisis alpha, where the nature of the crisis is defined by the speed of the trend following system.
Read more.
No Pain, No Premium
We explore the risk-based framework that gives risk to our philosophy of "no pain, no premium" and its implications for diversification.
Read more.
Tightening the Uncertain Payout of Trend-Following
Long/flat trend-following strategies look like call options with uncertainty. Combining multiple trend models can reduce this uncertainty in the payout.
Read more.
Drawdowns and Portfolio Longevity
We find that a long or prolonged drawdowns early in an investor’s retirement can dramatically increase the probability of failure.
Read more.
Fragility Case Study: Dual Momentum GEM
We demonstrate how simple differences in dual momentum implementations can lead to annual performance differences up to thousands of basis points.
Read more.
Video Digest: Process & Manager Diversification
A video digest of our most recent weekly research commentaries on the potential benefits of diversifying across managers or process within a portfolio.
Read more.
Is Multi-Manager Diversification Worth It?
In this commentary we explore whether manager diversification can have risk reduction benefits like those found with asset diversification.
Read more.
Dart-Throwing Monkeys and Process Diversification
A brief note that explores the impact of process diversification on terminal wealth dispersion, a key metric in portfolio planning.
Read more.
What do portfolios and teacups have in common?
Volatility is one way to manage risk. How sensitive a portfolio is to small changes in inputs – a measure of its fragility – is another important measure.
Read more.
Maximizing Diversification
Maximum diversification is possible in portfolio construction, but its benefits are often ephemeral and out of line with investor objectives.
Read more.
Directionally Right and Precisely Wrong
Portfolio construction decisions tell us about more than just our objective: they tell us about our beliefs. But what if we're not 100% certain?
Read more.
The Yield is Gravity
Yield remains the dominant force of returns over time for many fixed-income portfolios; price volatility and default risk are necessary to earn a premium.
Read more.
Measuring the Benefit of Diversification
A systematic approach for evaluating diversification leads to actionable, unbiased results based on a portfolio's objectives.
Read more.
Video Digest: When Simplicity Met Fragility
A video digest of our most recent weekly research commentary on the balancing act between robustness and fragility created by simplicity.
Read more.