The Path-Dependent Nature of Perfect Withdrawal Rates
The perfect withdrawal rate in a retirement portfolio contains more risk than meets the eye. The order of returns is extremely important.
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Trend Following in Cash Balance Plans
Cash balance plans can accelerate retirement savings beyond 401ks and IRAs. But how they are invested depends heavily on the return guarantee and employees.
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The Monsters of Investing: Fast and Slow Failure
Investors must navigate between the risks of failing fast and slow. Knowing which is most likely to prey on you can inform portfolio design.
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G̷̖̱̓́̀litch
The convexity of trend may be more crisis beta than crisis alpha, where the nature of the crisis is defined by the speed of the trend following system.
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No Pain, No Premium
We explore the risk-based framework that gives risk to our philosophy of "no pain, no premium" and its implications for diversification.
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Tightening the Uncertain Payout of Trend-Following
Long/flat trend-following strategies look like call options with uncertainty. Combining multiple trend models can reduce this uncertainty in the payout.
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Drawdowns and Portfolio Longevity
We find that a long or prolonged drawdowns early in an investor’s retirement can dramatically increase the probability of failure.
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Fragility Case Study: Dual Momentum GEM
We demonstrate how simple differences in dual momentum implementations can lead to annual performance differences up to thousands of basis points.
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Video Digest: Process & Manager Diversification
A video digest of our most recent weekly research commentaries on the potential benefits of diversifying across managers or process within a portfolio.
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Is Multi-Manager Diversification Worth It?
In this commentary we explore whether manager diversification can have risk reduction benefits like those found with asset diversification.
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Dart-Throwing Monkeys and Process Diversification
A brief note that explores the impact of process diversification on terminal wealth dispersion, a key metric in portfolio planning.
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What do portfolios and teacups have in common?
Volatility is one way to manage risk. How sensitive a portfolio is to small changes in inputs – a measure of its fragility – is another important measure.
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Maximizing Diversification
Maximum diversification is possible in portfolio construction, but its benefits are often ephemeral and out of line with investor objectives.
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Directionally Right and Precisely Wrong
Portfolio construction decisions tell us about more than just our objective: they tell us about our beliefs. But what if we're not 100% certain?
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The Yield is Gravity
Yield remains the dominant force of returns over time for many fixed-income portfolios; price volatility and default risk are necessary to earn a premium.
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Measuring the Benefit of Diversification
A systematic approach for evaluating diversification leads to actionable, unbiased results based on a portfolio's objectives.
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Video Digest: When Simplicity Met Fragility
A video digest of our most recent weekly research commentary on the balancing act between robustness and fragility created by simplicity.
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When Simplicity Met Fragility
Simplicity can be surprisingly robust, but too much simplicity can be surprisingly fragile. We explore the limits of simplicity in trend equity strategies.
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Managing Equity Risk When Rates Rise
Managing equity risk when rates rise may be difficult for investors whose risk management plan relies exclusively on asset class diversification.
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Measuring Risk Tolerance
Risk tolerance is a tricky metric to measure. Riskalyze tries to intuitively quantify this, but be careful not to oversimplify this complex portfolio input.
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